Thursday, January 14, 2010

Most EU regions face older population profile in 2030

From: Regional population projections EUROPOP2008: Most EU regions face older population profile in 2030

This publication describes the results of the 2008-based regional NUTS level 2 population projections for Europe, produced by Eurostat for the EU-27 Member States, Norway and Switzerland. The 2008-based regional population projections EUROPOP2008 show that population may increase in two out of three regions between 2008 and 2030. However, in 2030, slightly more than half of the regions are projected to continue to increase their population. The median age of the regions’ population in 2030 is projected to be between 34.2 years and 57.0 years, while in 2008 the range was between 32.9 years and 47.8 years. Similarly, in 2030, the share of the population aged 65 years or over is expected to range between 10.4 % and 37.3 %. In 2008, the range was between 9.1 % and 26.8 %. Population projections are what-if scenarios that aim to provide information about the likely future size and structure of the population. Eurostat’s regional population projections scenario is one of several possible population change scenarios at regional level based on assumptions for fertility, mortality and migration.

While the EU population is projected to rise by 5 % between 2008 and 2030, there is considerable variation between the 281 regions in the Member States, Norway and Switzerland.

In fact, as shown in Figure 1, population may increase in Cyprus, Luxembourg and Malta and in all regions in Belgium, Denmark, Ireland, the United Kingdom, Norway and Switzerland by 2030. Similarly, the most heavily populated regions of Austria, the Czech Republic, Spain, Finland, France, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Sweden and Slovenia are projected to increase in population over the period.

Figure 2 shows the range of the regions’ relative population change between 2008 and 2030 for each country. Additionally, between the highest and lowest values the bars illustrate the national figure. Different shading is used for the range above and below the countries’ relative population change.

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