Long term unemployment set to rise in the aftermath of the crisis
While there is hope of economic recovery as output starts growing again, the effects of the crisis on the European labour market are far from over. In 2009Q3, the ranks of the unemployed increased to around 21.4 million in the EU. Many of them lost their job in the past 12 months. But with fewer jobs on offer, the risk of staying unemployed for over a year is real for a substantial number of people. This could result in more social exclusion and poverty. Recent data (third quarter of 2009) from the European Labour Force Survey (LFS) are used to analyse unemployment in the different population groups in terms of duration. The data are supplemented by seasonally adjusted monthly data on unemployment and quarterly data on job vacancies, to give a more complete picture. This publication is the third in a series analysing the effects of the current economic crisis on the labour market in Europe.
Denmark, Finland and Sweden show high shares of their unemployed to be in unemployment for less than 6 months, as a result of the recent increase of unemployment. At present, there is also only a small number of long-term unemployed in these countries.